We will be hearing a lot about taxes this summer, including people trying to scare us by saying Washingtonians don’t want more taxes. But that’s not true. There’s more to the to the story than “taxes bad”. Polling and listening sessions show that Washingtonians want to see their communities funded and think that the rich should pay up to make that happen.
Advocates and organizers are gearing up for the 2024 election. In Washington, this includes organizing against right-wing ballot measures to repeal or cut funding from three critical programs: the capital gains tax on the wealthy (which funds early education and K-12 school building construction), long term care, and climate resilience.
As these campaigns shift into high gear, we will be hearing more about how Washingtonians feel about their own family’s taxes, whether wealthy and giant, profitable corporations pay their fair share, and what Washingtonians want to see funded in their communities, including schools, roads, housing, and social services. But not all of that conversation will be evidence-based. Here’s what Washingtonians really think:
2022 State Innovation Exchange Polling
In December of 2022, the State Innovation Exchange (SIX) commissioned polling as part of their “Tax Justice Initiative”, a nationwide cohort of legislators and advocates committed to passing legislation to tax the rich and fund public services at the state level.
They surveyed 500 Washingtonians across the state about the wealth tax, taxes on the rich, and what areas needed funding. The poll showed that 67% of Washington voters support implementing a state wealth tax where the first $250 million in wealth held in financial assets is exempted from taxation.
The survey also showed cross-partisan support for the tax on the wealthy, with 88% of Democrats, 58% of Independents, and 48% of Republicans surveyed supporting the state wealth tax proposal. In addition, a majority of Washingtonians polled believed that the wealthy aren’t paying their share, stating that current taxes on those with at least $50 million in wealth are too low. (The Seattle Times recently reported that Seattle alone is home to over 54,000 millionaires, 130 “centimillionaires” with over $100 million in wealth, and 11 billionaires.) Voters named public health care, affordable housing, and K-12 public education as priority areas for funding with revenues from new taxes on the ultra-rich.
2023 Northwest Progressive Institute Polling
In March of 2023, Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of 874 likely voters for the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI). The poll asked if they supported levying a 1% wealth tax on Washington residents whose worldwide wealth exceeds $250 million to benefit public services in Washington, such as disability services, housing, and special education. NPI found that 67% of respondents were in support, with only 28% opposed and 5% not sure. Over fifty percent were strongly supportive, which shows very strong, statewide support for the measure. NPI reported that these results are very similar to those found in a 2021 poll (also conducted on behalf of NPI) on the state wealth tax, with a slight increase in support from 2021 to 2023 (60% to 67%) and strongly support (50% to 57%) and a slight decrease in opposition (36% to 28%).
2023 Listening Sessions
In August 2023, public opinion research group GBAO held four in-person focus groups, each with 8-10 swing or lean-Democratic voters from Snohomish, suburban King, and Pierce counties.
What the pollsters heard in these small sessions was that despite working hard, people are struggling and overwhelmed by the rising cost of living, homelessness, and inequality. They are very worried for their children’s future. Participants believe that we need to invest more in mental health services and affordable housing.
The typical participant considered incomes above $300,000 and/or assets over $3 million as wealthy. When prompted, participants could describe the difference between income and wealth. For context, the current legislation for a Washington State Wealth tax exempts the first $250 million in wealth held in financial intangible assets (stocks, bonds, business equity, etc) from taxation.
Participants identified taxes in Washington as “brutal,” in that every aspect of everyday life (shopping, the house, gas) is taxed. They felt an income tax would not be terrible if it were a replacement for other taxes, specifically sales tax, rather than added on top of the current system. Participants believe the wealthiest and big corporations aren’t paying enough in taxes, both through the tax structure not taxing their wealth or profits as well as the wealthy’s use of use tax loopholes or accountants to avoid paying their fair share. A woman from South King County stated, “Everyone is being overcharged except the corporations and the wealthy.”
Participants had concerns about the government not spending taxpayer money well. They were concerned about wealthy individuals and businesses leaving the state because of higher taxes. At the same time, participants understand that a wealth tax would not be a burden on the rich, with one man from Pierce County saying, “The wealthier people, it wouldn’t be too big a loss for them.”
Because they hold multiple competing viewpoints simultaneously, the electorate is very persuadable on the wealth tax. Participant conversation and moderator prompts had big, persuasive impacts the group dynamics.
2024 Polling on the Capital Gains Ballot Measure
In April, a poll conducted by GBAO asked likely voters in Washington about the right-wing measures appearing on the ballot this fall. Specifically, they tested possible ballot titles including the legally required fiscal impact disclosure statements for Initiatives 2109 (repeal of the Capital Gains Tax), 2117 (repeal of the Climate Commitment Act) and 2124 (defunding of Washington Cares Fund). The poll asked
Initiative measure 2109 concerns taxes. This measure would repeal an excise tax imposed on the sale or exchange of certain long-term capital assets by individuals who have annual capital gains over $250,000. This measure would decrease funding for education, early learning and childcare, and school construction.
They found that 62% of likely voters plan to vote no on I-2109, 32% plan to vote to repeal the tax on the wealthy and 6% are not yet sure how they will vote.
This poll shows that voters are opposed to cutting funding for education. Contrast this result with the results of a Seattle Times-commissioned poll from July. Importantly, this poll did not include the fiscal impact statement, but rather just asked voters about the tax repeal (“On Initiative 2109, which would repeal the 7% state capital gains tax on stock and bond sale profits over $250,000, are you certain to vote yes/no/not certain”). They found 46% plan to vote yes, 23% plan to vote no, and 31% are uncertain.
These contrasting results show that Washingtonians care about their communities and do not want to see funding for schools taken away, and that these concerns override sentiments about taxes. In other words, context is key.
Conclusion
What these data show us is that Washingtonians care first and foremost about their families, neighbors and communities: they want to see their kids thrive and want to be able to feel good about their local world. People feel like the current tax system doesn’t work well for them and that the wealthy aren’t paying what they owe.
A state wealth tax is popular and could provide funding for the schools, roads, social programs and other services we want to see in our neighborhoods. Providing for cost-free community college, affordable, local childcare, expanded direct cash (such as expanding the Working Families Tax Credit), and permanently affordable housing in city centers across the state are all things that a more progressive tax code that appropriately taxes wealth and high earners could provide.
These programs would help provide economic security for all Washingtonians and lessen wealthy inequality. So if you hear the tired talking point that “Washingtonians hate taxes,” feel informed to counter this faulty reasoning. Washingtonians hate wealth inequality and the skyrocketing cost of living. Taxes on the rich are relatively popular and the programs that would be funded through these new, progressive taxes, even more so.
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